As the global art market contends with a volatile economic and regulatory landscape, two key developments threaten to disrupt the flow of art trade: the European Union’s new regulation on cultural goods, set to take effect in June 2025, and looming uncertainty around potential U.S. tariffs under a second Trump administration. 

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The first shift, The EU’s Regulation 2019/880, has been on the cards for some time. Introduced six years ago the regulation aims to prevent the illegal trade of cultural goods, particularly from countries involved in armed conflict. While there is widespread support for its aspirations, there are mounting concerns over how such stringent controls will play out in reality.

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The regulation’s core provisions—that cultural goods created or discovered from outside the EU would be prohibited entry into the Union if not in accordance with the laws of the source country, that objects over 200 years old and valued over EUR 18,000 be accompanied by an importers statement and that items more than 250 yrs of age would require a licence—are complex. 

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Exceptions exist for items previously imported into the EU and for goods originating from within the EU itself, but the precision required to establish an artwork's age and provenance poses significant challenges. It does not take long to find legitimately exported cultural items in the trade which have an ownership history that predates modern documentation standards, and the shifting of international geographical borders can further complicate the already-daunting task of specifically identifying the origin of many artefacts.

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In a market driven by the exchange of high-value goods across borders, barriers built on such specificities could have profound consequences. On a macro-scale this could see volumes of trade across regions alter, with dealers and collectors potentially moving towards countries with more lenient import practices. On a more operational level there are concerns over the added administrative burdens on art dealers, galleries, and auction houses who have already been vocal on concerns around capacity and pressures on margins in an economy of increasing overheads. Smaller and younger enterprises are more likely to suffer.

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Compounding the sense of uncertainty is ongoing discussion over potential U.S. tariffs. Whilst the specifics under President Trump’s grandiose public statements remain forthcoming, the new economic restrictions being discussed could directly impact U.S. buyers, museums and galleries, driving up the cost of acquiring artworks from abroad and possibly deterring cross-border trade- particularly for businesses working in Mexico, China and the EU.

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The effect of all these real and potential shifts are effects on the market are not purely economic. In the wake of Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing inflationary pressures, a lack of predictability is far from welcome and there are clear risks emerging for long-term planning. These upcoming challenges also highlight the fragility of the market’s reliance on a few key players and points to a future in which the trade must find balance between navigating regulatory landscapes and mitigating the risks posed by external economic pressures. 

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Ultimately, a more transparent and equitable system could be in sight but it is clear that the road ahead will require close attention to regulatory landscapes.

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